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A former special forces colonel, government minister Al Carns was this week on manouevres cautioning that the UK must ready itself for war with Russia.

“The threat of conflict is at Europe’s door once more. That’s the reality. We’ve got to be prepared to prevent it,” he said, in comments that exceed previous warnings by his boss, the defence secretary.

“As a whole society – what is their role if we get caught in an existential crisis, and what do they need to be aware they need to do and what they can’t do, and how do we mobilise the nation to support a armed campaign?”

It was blunt language from the 45-year-old born in Scotland MP, who has had an remarkably rapid rise to his role of armed forces minister.

Rapid Rise to Prominence

And inevitably for a politician with a history of service in the armed forces, there is speculation about whether he is future leadership material – as with, at various points, other military figures before him.

This time, however, some ruling party MPs think there could be a real prospect of Carns being a candidate if and when the opportunity presents itself.

One of the reasons for that is that Carns has been engaged with politics for longer than it seems, as a former defence advisor to three previous defence secretaries.

But there is also the danger of being overhyped as a politician with a backstory colleagues think will resonate with the public – without enough thought of whether they have the track record and political instincts to make it to the top.

From the Battlefield to Westminster

Carns was born in Aberdeen, and educated in the state system, before joining the Royal Marines in 1999 at the age of 19. He rose through the ranks and was awarded the Military Cross in 2011 “for gallant and distinguished services in Afghanistan”.

It came as a surprise when he left the armed forces after 24 years of service to stand as an MP in Birmingham Selly Oak, shortly before he was due to be promoted to brigadier.

And in a sign he was immediately identified as a talent, the prime minister appointed him as a junior veterans minister straight after the most recent general election. He was promoted later that year to the more prominent position with a portfolio covering all the military.

Public Profile and Partisan Combat

Chiselled and confident, Carns has been an occasional media performer for the government, and has been an sharp partisan operator when criticising rival parties over issues of national security.

He has also found time to break a world record this year along with former military colleagues by ascending the world's highest peak in under five days without acclimating on the mountain, aided by xenon gas.

Leadership Speculation and Internal Caution

His name entered the conversation as a possible future leader in earnest around the time of a leadership election last autumn, when his supporters began canvassing colleagues about a run for the job. That failed to get off the ground, with the prime minister's office strongly supporting another candidate.

Since then, profiles of Carns have begun to appear in the media, with one newspaper presenting him as the “Action Man” that some were trying to stop from challenging the prime minister.

While some MPs think he could be leadership material, others think he is making himself appear too ambitious when there is no vacancy at the top. There is also a apprehension about the meteoric ascent of a high flyer from outside politics.

“It's not proven that being senior in the military translates to being any good at politics any more than being a top prosecutor,” says one MP. “He is completely untested.”