Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."