From Grudging Respect to Disquiet: Moscow Considers the Fall of Maduro.

A unexpected operation against the capital city under cover of darkness, culminating in the seizure of the country's president. By the next morning, the foreign force declares its intention to govern indefinitely.

That is precisely how Russia's president imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

Officially, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a flagrant violation of global norms and a worrying development. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a coup that Moscow itself once planned, but could not carry out due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The operation was carried out with precision,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was supposed to unfold: fast, decisive and conclusive. It’s hard to believe [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be fighting for this long.”

Such commentary have fed a atmosphere of introspection among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody conflict.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the American action seemed. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'military mission,’” she wrote.

Allies in Decline

For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a network of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of forging a new axis able to challenge Washington.

Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other key allies fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with little choice but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with the US administration on that issue far outweighs the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

Those include S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Still, some in Moscow perceive a grim silver lining. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than law, determines results.

“The US administration is tough and cynical in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”